West Philippine Sea: Why Election Campaigns Focus on Economic Woes Over Maritime Disputes

Political scientist Cleve Arguelles analyzes how economic anxieties are overshadowing the Philippines' territorial dispute with China in the current election cycle.

MANILA, Philippines – While surveys indicate strong Filipino support for candidates who vow to defend the country's sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea, the ongoing election campaign paints a different picture. Many candidates have notably downplayed the country's maritime rights, despite recent provocative actions by China, such as raising its flag at Sandy Cay, near the Philippine-occupied Pag-asa Island.

With the election nearing, the longstanding maritime dispute between the Philippines and China seems to be sidelined by economic concerns, including underemployment, rising costs, and the political rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte camps.

Political scientist Cleve Arguelles suggests that this muted rhetoric on sovereignty is a reflection of a campaign season dominated by pressing economic anxieties. "The West Philippine Sea is undoubtedly an important issue for many Filipinos. Our surveys consistently show strong public support for defending Philippine sovereignty and pushing back against China's incursions," stated Arguelles, also the founder of WR Numero.

"But like all political issues, it competes for attention — and right now, it's losing that competition to more immediate concerns like food security, inflation and jobs," he added.

China's actions, such as its Coast Guard's "maritime control" over Sandy Cay, prompted a swift response from the Philippine government, which sent personnel to plant the Philippine flag. National Security Council Assistant Director General Jonathan Malaya dismissed China's claims as disinformation.

Among senatorial candidates, the incident drew strong statements from only a few. Sen. Francis Tolentino, part of the Marcos-backed Alyansa slate, and author of legislation defining maritime boundaries, was among the most vocal. He filed a resolution calling for an investigation. Human rights lawyer Chel Diokno, running under Akbayan party-list, condemned China's actions as "unlawful" and a "clear violation of international law."

The limited response to the Sandy Cay incident suggests a broader reluctance to center the South China Sea dispute in campaign messaging, even though polls show strong voter interest in candidates defending the country's territory. A WR Numero survey showed that at least eight in ten voters support candidates who will assert the Philippines' territorial rights against China.

Arguelles believes there's voter confusion about candidates' actual positions on China. "Even though there are candidates identified as pro-China – those who favor appeasement, believing that conceding to some of China's claims might reduce tensions – we don't see voters punishing them at the polls," Arguelles said. "In fact, according to our survey, most voters struggle to clearly distinguish which candidates are pro-China and which are not."

This ambiguity creates a political environment where candidates may hesitate to take clear stances that could alienate voters. "While the Sandy Cay incident spiked national headlines, it hasn’t fundamentally reshaped the election narrative. For now, fish and rice issues still dominate the race," Arguelles noted.

Economic priorities have a pronounced impact on voter perspectives, especially among the most vulnerable Filipinos. A Social Weather Stations survey found that while 78% of Filipinos prefer candidates who will assert maritime claims, this figure drops among Class E voters, those living below the poverty line, where 41% would vote for candidates who do not plan to assert maritime claims.

Arguelles emphasized that the Philippines' predicament in defending its maritime territory "isn't just about sovereignty in the abstract." It's connected to everyday concerns like food and energy security. "But unfortunately, these links aren't apparent to most voters. My sense is there's still a big gap between national security conversations and how ordinary voters perceive their day-to-day struggles," he said.

Sen. Bong Go, running for re-election as part of the PDP-Laban slate, stressed the importance of defending the Philippines' sovereign rights. Kabataan Partylist, through Renee Co, called for the demilitarization of the West Philippine Sea, and the immediate exit of Chinese troops.

The maritime sovereignty issue is further complicated by the rift between the Marcos and Duterte camps. Marcos has attempted to use the territorial dispute to differentiate his administration from former President Rodrigo Duterte, who maintained closer ties with Beijing. China's embassy in Manila urged candidates to refrain from using the country's issues with China to "boost their election prospects."