Duterte's Bid for Davao Mayor: A Hague Detention, A City's Loyalty

Facing ICC charges, Rodrigo Duterte could still win the mayoral race in Davao, showcasing the enduring power of his controversial legacy.

In the bustling city of Davao, Philippines, the mayoral election campaign is in full swing, with candidates vying for votes. However, one prominent figure is notably absent from the campaign trail. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is 7,000 miles away, held in custody by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Netherlands. He awaits trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity, stemming from his brutal war on drug dealers that resulted in possibly thousands of deaths, including innocents, with minimal due process.

Despite these circumstances, the 80-year-old Duterte remains eligible to run for mayor of Davao, a position he held for two decades. Philippine election law dictates that only a local criminal conviction can disqualify a candidate. Duterte's potential victory in the upcoming election is attributed to his sustained popularity in the region, where many credit his leadership with enhancing law and order.

"I grew up here all my life and when I was younger it was very dangerous, killings and fighting everywhere," said Ian Baldoza, a 46-year-old Davao native and staunch Duterte supporter. "But as I grew older, I started to understand that those who were killed were drug addicts, dealers and troublemakers." He praised Duterte for improvements in public safety, infrastructure development, and law enforcement in the city of 1.8 million people, adding, "You never see people spit on the street or leave trash behind, unlike in other cities."

Cleve Arguelles, a political scientist and head of polling firm WR Numero, noted that Duterte's ICC arrest "doesn’t really shake their core of who Duterte is but rather, paradoxically, it only reinforces what Duterte stands for." Baldoza, even after witnessing neighbors killed in Duterte's drug war, continues to support him, stating, "We’re not looking for a saint, we’re looking for a leader with political will, and the Duterte family has that, especially in the patriarch."

While Duterte has not commented publicly on the race, his daughter Sara, the Philippine vice president, expressed gratitude to supporters on his behalf at a rally. "President Rodrigo Duterte thanks you all for your love, your continued support, and your prayers that he will one day be brought back to our country," she said.

The midterm elections involve numerous local posts across the Philippines, with three generations of the Duterte clan participating. Duterte's son Sebastian, the incumbent Davao mayor, is running as his father's running mate, while another son, Paolo, seeks re-election to the national congress. Two of Paolo’s sons are also vying for local council seats.

Ramon Beleno, a political analyst and former professor from Ateneo de Davao University, observes that while Duterte's popularity seems unwavering, questions about the dynasty's succession are emerging. "The people of Davao have this perspective that a political dynasty is OK if it’s working," Beleno said. "But it’s only working as long as the patriarch, the person who established the political dynasty, is still strong."

Opposition camps are re-emerging in Davao, including descendants of the late Prospero Nograles, reigniting a family rivalry. Karlo Nograles is running against Rodrigo Duterte for mayor, while his sister, Margarita, challenges Paolo. Cracks in the Duterte family's image are also showing, with Vice President Sara Duterte in a feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and facing calls for impeachment.

If Duterte wins, he can still be sworn in, possibly via a Zoom call, according to Arguelles. Day-to-day duties would be delegated to the vice mayor. If he cannot be sworn in, Karlo Nograles, the projected runner-up, would assume the seat.

Duterte’s six years as president were marked by a violent crackdown on drugs that claimed many lives. According to police data, 6,000 people were killed, though rights groups suggest the death toll could be as high as 30,000. The ICC has scheduled his next hearing for September 23.