Navigating the Tightrope: Ex-NTU President Warns of Taiwan's Geopolitical Balancing Act

Kuan Chung-ming Highlights Risks Posed by Both the U.S. and China, Urging Taiwan to Forge Its Own Path

Taipei, April 20 – Former National Taiwan University (NTU) President Kuan Chung-ming (管中閔) has delivered a stark warning: Taiwan finds itself in a precarious position, facing significant threats from both the United States and China. He advocates for Taiwan to avoid being controlled by any external power and to take a more proactive role in shaping its own destiny.

Kuan's remarks were made at an event organized by the opposition Taiwan People's Party (TPP), in a speech entitled "When a Bull in a China Shop," a pointed reference to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Addressing Taiwan's complex geopolitical situation, Kuan detailed risks emanating from the U.S., including potential tariffs and associated costs, disruptions in semiconductor supply chains, policy uncertainties, and the potential for the U.S. to demand financial concessions from Taiwan.

"To Trump, in particular, there is nothing more important than buying and selling, and Taiwan has no way of predicting what will be included in those deals," Kuan stated.

Simultaneously, Kuan highlighted Taiwan's continued, significant dependence on China for trade, even amidst strained cross-strait relations. He suggested that Taiwan could find its economy increasingly squeezed by both Beijing and Washington.

Drawing a parallel to Donald Trump's reported advice to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Kuan emphasized that Taiwan must carefully assess its own "cards" in the game of international relations.

Economically, Kuan argued that Taiwan should leverage pressure from both China and the U.S. to stimulate economic reforms, including further market liberalization and diversification of its service sector industries. He also emphasized the importance of "stabilizing" relations with China.

On the security front, Kuan expressed concern that "Trump likes making deals, and it is possible that he will make a deal on Taiwan's security."

Rather than becoming a mere pawn of the U.S., Kuan argued, Taiwan "needs to find a way to act with initiative and agency between [the U.S. and China]."

Turning his attention to Taiwan's domestic politics, Kuan expressed concerns regarding the current DPP government's approach to cross-strait relations, particularly given that they secured only 40% of the vote in the most recent presidential election.

"The future of 23 million people should not be controlled by a small number of extremists in the DPP," Kuan asserted.

While acknowledging Taiwan's limited agency in the cross-strait dynamic, Kuan believes that Taiwan possesses the capacity to "balance" its relations with the U.S., and thus mitigate some of the risks emanating from China.

Kuan, an economist, served as NTU President from 2019 to 2023. He also held the position of head of the National Development Council from 2014 to 2015 during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Kuomintang (KMT).