US-China Trade Talks: Beyond the UK Deal - A Daunting Challenge

As officials prepare for crucial talks, the path to a US-China trade agreement is far more complex than the recent UK deal.

As Trump administration officials prepare to meet with Chinese officials in Geneva this weekend, the momentum from the United Kingdom trade deal announcement on Thursday might seem promising. However, experts caution against high expectations.

"I'm keeping my expectations in check. Tariffs are high. Tensions are high. It's easier to impose tariffs than to unwind them," said Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator and current vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

President Donald Trump, known for his strong stance on trade deficits, has implemented steep tariffs on China, with rates reaching 145% for many products. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own, starting at 125% on most US goods. The economic impact on both countries is significant, with investors and businesses eager for a resolution.

The UK trade deal, though presented as a success, may not be a good starting point for discussions with China. The details of the UK deal were relatively easy to achieve due to the UK's lower tariffs. The US also ran a $12 billion trade surplus with the UK last year. China, on the other hand, presents a much greater challenge.

Experts anticipate the weekend talks, which mark the first official dialogue between top US and Chinese government officials during Trump’s second term, will focus on de-escalation rather than a comprehensive agreement. Trump himself has indicated he wouldn’t consider lowering tariffs to get China to the negotiating table, although reports suggest the administration might consider lowering tariffs to as low as 50% as soon as next week.

Susan Shirk, a research professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, believes China may act in a more disciplined manner in these talks compared to previous discussions, suggesting "they're not likely to mess it up." She also hopes China will demonstrate a good faith effort to reduce its exports to the United States and other countries.

Wendy Cutler suggests the best realistic outcome would be establishing a "process for further engagement," including a potential call between Trump and Xi Jinping. The worst outcome, according to experts, could be a public and acrimonious breakdown, mirroring the disastrous 2021 talks in Alaska. This could lead to even higher tariffs.

The stakes are high, and the path forward is uncertain. The success of these talks will significantly impact the global economy and the relationship between the US and China.