Taiwan's Future: New Survey Reveals Shifting Chinese Perspectives on Unification

A fresh look at Chinese public opinion shows evolving attitudes toward Taiwan and regional relationships.

A recent survey has shed new light on Chinese public opinion regarding the future of Taiwan, revealing a nuanced perspective on the potential use of force for unification. Conducted by the Carter Center and Emory University, the survey presents significant findings that challenge previously held assumptions.

The report, titled “Sovereignty, Security, & US-China Relations: Chinese Public Opinion,” unveiled that over half of the respondents, specifically 55.1%, either agreed or somewhat agreed that “the Taiwan problem should not be resolved using force under any circumstances.” In contrast, only 24.5% expressed disagreement with this statement.

This marks a potential shift in attitudes compared to a previous survey published in May 2023. That study, "Assessing Public Support for (Non)Peaceful Unification with Taiwan: Evidence from a Nationwide Survey in China" showed that 55% of respondents supported full-scale war to achieve unification.

While a majority appear to oppose force, it's important to note that the survey also indicated that the majority would agree with military action if that was the last resort. Only 18.1% said that no military action was necessary.

The report also highlighted related sentiments: “Public opinion in China reflects American views. Polling by Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy found that 87.6 percent of Chinese people agree that the United States is actively trying to limit China’s development.”

When asked about the timeline for resolving the Taiwan issue, 33.5% of respondents favored resolution within five years.

The survey also delved into China's relationships with other nations. A significant 66.1% of respondents believed China should support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, considering it in Beijing's national interest. Regarding border claims with India, 79.7% supported maintaining them despite potential conflict. Furthermore, a strong 81.1% of respondents believed Southeast Asian countries should respect China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, even in light of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s rejection of these claims.

The survey was conducted between September 1st and 25th of last year by Dynata, surveying 2,211 Chinese citizens aged 18 to 54.