China's Shadowy Presence in Ukraine: Are Soldiers Facing Ukraine the True Target?

Unpacking Beijing's "Neutrality" and the Potential for a Taiwan Scenario.

The inevitable has happened: two Chinese mercenaries fighting for Russia in Ukraine have been captured by Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. This raises serious questions about China's true intentions amidst the ongoing conflict. According to reports, including those by investigative journalist Chai Jing based on interviews with a Chinese participant, Macarone, hundreds of Chinese individuals are serving in the Russian military, fighting alongside Russian forces.

With Russia facing manpower shortages on the front lines, these mercenaries are likely being used as expendable soldiers, facing capture, injury, or death. The revelation, personally announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has placed significant pressure on China to provide an explanation. Ukraine has likely been aware of the presence of Chinese mercenaries for some time, but the country's own difficult situation and a reluctance to fully antagonize China have led to restraint.

Despite the situation, diplomatic relations between the two countries continue. A meeting between Ukrainian and Chinese foreign ministers occurred at the Munich Security Conference this year, and agreements regarding Ukrainian agricultural imports have been signed. This raises suspicions of a more strategic agenda behind China's proclaimed neutrality.

Some analysts suggest that China's ambiguous stance could be a strategic exercise, an opportunity to gather battlefield data, and train military personnel in the context of a real war. The primary concern, however, is whether these actions are preparation for a potential incursion into Taiwan, and the possibility that the Ukraine conflict is being used as a practical training ground for such a scenario.