Taiwan's Energy Resilience: How Long Could It Survive a Chinese Blockade?

Expert Analysis on Taiwan's Energy Security in the Face of Potential Chinese Military Action.

Concerns have been raised about Taiwan's energy security, particularly in the event of a blockade by China. Considering recent military exercises that affected the timely arrival of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) vessels, the question arises: how long could Taiwan's energy supply last under such circumstances?

Professor Wu Da-jen, an economist at National Central University, provides insights into this critical issue. He indicates that Taiwan's natural gas reserves currently stand at approximately seven days during the summer months, when electricity demand peaks. During normal operating days, this reserve extends to about 10 to 14 days.

Professor Wu emphasizes the potential for a gas supply disruption if a Chinese blockade extends beyond the available reserve days. He warns that this could lead to significant energy shortages, with the situation becoming "very serious" if the blockade lasts for over a month. He also notes that simply replacing coal with natural gas without addressing transportation and storage capabilities will not contribute to enhanced energy security.

Professor Wu further points out the importance of the natural gas turnover rate as a key variable in Taiwan's energy equation. Based on current energy conditions, if a blockade prevents natural gas shipments from reaching Taiwan, and it exceeds the existing storage duration, there is a risk of gas shortages. While Taiwan can presently withstand such a scenario for a few weeks, a blockade lasting a month would pose a severe challenge to the island's energy supply.